VOL. 8 | NO. 9 | Saturday, February 21, 2015
Realtors Running Out of Inventory in Some Areas
RICHARD COURTNEY | The Ledger
Richard Exton, the dean of real estate appraisers, well at least a tenured gentleman, spoke to a group pf Realtors recently and provided the data reflecting the current state of the real estate market.
His presentation divided the city into neighborhoods as well as MLS areas and some of the surrounding areas into subareas. While the lack of inventory and enormous demand were well known by most in attendance, the numbers overall are almost terrifying.
Three good months and we are out of business.
Belle Meade weighs in with the highest supply at 8.5 months, but it is a unique market with only 44 sales in 2014, 60 in 2013 and 41 in 2012, up from 19 in 2009. Belle Meade was not immune to the Great Recession.
There is a 6.3-month supply of inventory in Clarksville, 5.2 in Columbia and 5.0 in Gallatin and Dickson. Those in the know consider a six month supply to be a balanced market, so only Clarksville is balanced out of all of the areas that Exton follows.
Areas 1 (Crieve Hall to Nolensville with what some call Brentioch, Bellevue, Belle Meade, Green Hills, West Meade/Hillwood), 6 (East Nashville), 7 (Old Hickory, Hermitage), Bellevue, LaVergne and Smyrna all have less than 3 months.
Smyrna leads all areas with a mere 1.9 months of inventory.
It should be noted that Richard Exton’s numbers do not reflect homes under contract. In short, a cursory visit to Realtracs will show that as many as 50 percent of the homes listed as active in Smyrna and Antioch are actually under contract, meaning that the 1.9 months of inventory in LaVergne is really less than one month.
His data also reflected changes in list price in the various areas over the years.
In the year from 2013 to 2014, Area 6, East Nashville, led the way with a 20.1 percent appreciation, while Belle Meade had the worst year as prices dropped by 10.07 percent.
If I had written that statement in a column in 1991, there would have been men in white jumpsuits dispatched to have me fitted for a new jacket.
It should be noted that the average list price in Belle Meade in 2014 was $1,269,368, while East Nashville had an average list price of $205,762. So the Easterners still have a long way to go before taking over the reign as do all areas.
Green Hills ranked second to Belle Meade with an average list price of $710,988 in 2014, edging Brentwood at $702,472. Rounding out the top five in list price are West Meade ($479,853) and Franklin ($467,472).
After Franklin, the price drops into the $250,000s, and that covers most of Davidson County, with LaVergne and Smyrna coming in at $145,610 and $172,949, respectively.
As for increases in average list price, East Nashville is followed by LaVergne at 17.05 percent, Area 3 (Around Charlotte Pike) at 15.20 percent and Dickson at 14.02 percent.
As for upper-end listings, there are 7.9 months of inventory at homes $1 million to $1,099,999, up to 9 months for $1.1 million to $1.2 million. Then at $1.5 million, the inventory is 31.5 months, with 41.1 months at $3 million and 39 months at $4 million and up.
Sale of the Week
Last week we featured the 1212 condominium in all its grandeur and noted its whopping sales number citing that 21 of the top 40 sales in Nashville in January were logged in the building.
Want 6,630 square feet and this penthouse view? It was worth $4.45 million to someone.
Not to be outdone, the venerable Viridian – Tony Giarratana’s dream come true that kick-started the high-rise development in Nashville – has broken a record, according to Michele Trueba, who leads the condominium pack at Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices now after cutting her teeth as one of Giarratana’s in-house hired guns at the Viridian.
With her background, she was able to assemble a package of three penthouses, half of the total at the Viridian, into a 6,630-square-foot unit that sold for $4,450,000 to a single owner.
The new owner is removing every wall on these 30th floor spaces and constructing a four bedroom, five bathroom home. With $4.45 million as a base and a 6,630-square-foot build-out, this will rank as a premier domicile for the downtown area.
Richard Courtney is a real estate broker affiliated with Christianson, Patterson, Courtney, and Associates can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.