VOL. 109 | NO. 56 | Friday, December 22, 1995
12/22 Govt analys
Predictions for the new year
By JOHN TYLER, Ph.D
Special to The Daily News
I have always wanted to write one of these end-of-year prediction articles forecasting next years major political events. All predictions, of course, are based on current information and are subject to change with the political winds. Check back with me next December to see how accurate I was.
No. 1: The Republicans should maintain control of Congress, picking up a few seats in the House and perhaps another seat in the Senate.
No. 2: The Republicans should maintain control of the state Senate by a thin margin, although this could swing either way.
No. 3: The Democrats should maintain control of the state House of Representatives.
No. 4: State Rep. Dan Byrd, a Democrat, will win re-election despite aggressive targeting by the Republican Party. The Republicans just dont get it Byrd has been doing an excellent job for the people of his district so why should they change?
No. 5: President Clinton will win re-election. Bob Dole is not the person to lead the Republicans to victory (a caveat with Colin Powell as his running mate, he has a better than even chance).
No. 6: Given my fourth prediction, Lamar Alexander will not win the Republican nomination nor will he be a vice-presidential running mate to Dole. Alexander is too moderate, and the conservatives will have none of that. Look for Pat Buchanan or Phil Gramm as serious vice president choices, or someone completely unexpected. Without Powell on the ticket, though, not a good chance to win the presidency.
No. 7: The city of Bartlett has three aldermen up for re-election, but only two of them will win.
No. 8: In a two-person race, Republican versus Democrat, Court Clerk John Ford will have a tough time winning re-election. It appears he has done a good job running his office but his personal problems will overshadow the race.
No. 9: Congressman Harold Ford will run for and win re-election. I know he often makes a lot of people mad, but he is still an effective voice for Memphis.
No. 10: Fred Thompson should win re-election to the U.S. Senate for a full six-year term. People may disagree with his politics, but they sure do like him. The Democrats will have to work hard to retake this seat.
No. 11: For the first time, Shelby County will elect its school board, and all county voters (including city of Memphis voters) will take part in the election.
No. 12: Newt Gingrich will continue to say things that get him into trouble. Contrary to current events, he will become an issue in next years congressional races. The special ethics investigation could become a factor.
No. 13: The Memphis City Council will not get a pay increase in 1996. Just put it before the voters and see what happens (a hint: review past attempts to increase their pay).
Well, there are some of my political predictions for next year. But politics in Memphis is just like the weather in Memphis, just wait a few minutes and its sure to change. Whatever the outcome, it is gearing up to be a very exciting and interesting year.
This article represents the opinions of the author, John Tyler, who is president of Tyler Marketing.