TOYLAND: Michele Griffith, an employee of Village Toymaker at the Laurelwood Collection on Poplar Avenue, organizes merchandise at the store in preparation for the holiday rush. -- PHOTO BY TOM WILEMON

Dolls perch atop shelves, fluffy creatures dangle toward the floor and wheeled speedsters hug the wall tops at the Village Toymaker, which is fully stocked for the holiday shopping season.

These toys are likely to find homes despite a high unemployment rate and a scary economy, said Melissa Small, who manages the three Village Toymaker stores in Germantown, Collierville and Memphis.

The stores did well last year, she said, even though the stock market had tanked and banks were teetering. The story was different for most retailers, judging by Shelby County sales tax collections, which indicate people spent about 8 percent less last November and December.

Not exactly child’s play

This shopping season could be a repeat downer if Mid-South shoppers follow the sentiments people expressed in a national survey. Consumers plan to spend an average of $682.74 on holiday-related shopping, a 3.2 percent drop from last year’s $705.01, according to a survey commissioned by the National Retail Federation.

However, the organization is projecting an overall decline of 1 percent.

Last year, national sales during the holiday shopping season dropped 3.4 percent, the federation said. Sales had on average increased by about the same amount year-over-year during the decade before the recession.

Economists have declared the recession over, but employment has yet to rebound. Several counties in the Mid-South, including Shelby County, have unemployment rates at or above 10 percent, according to the most recent state labor statistics.

Even so, the manager of the toy stores remains optimistic.

“Parents are not going to skimp when it comes to their children,” Small said. “They may cut back, but they are not going to take away from their children. They are going to cut their Christmas. They are going to cut other adult people in their lives, but the kids are still going to have Christmas. I do really believe that. They may cut back as far as their limit on the child, but they are not going to cut the children out.”

Tailored to fit

Small said the stores are stocking more items with “birthday-price-points,” which generally fall into the $15 to $20 range. The stores are also stocking hot holiday items, such as EZYRoller, a go-cart-like toy with an extending bar that adjusts for children ages 4 to 14 and can hold up to 150 pounds. Children sit on it and roll around, with what the company bills as “the control of a bike and the fun of a scooter.”

Black Friday, followed by Cyber Monday when people go online for deals, ushers in the start of the holiday shopping season.

Tracy Mullin, the president of the National Retail Federation, said it is difficult to make assumptions about shopping trends this year.

“While last holiday season was filled with chaotic confusion, adjusting to uncertainty has now become routine for many Americans,” Mullin said in a press release. “This holiday season will be a bit of a dance between retailers and shoppers, with each feeling the other out to understand how things have changed and how they must adapt.”

Many companies are stocking less inventory, which means there may be fewer discounted deals in January. The National Retail Federation’s Port Tracker report shows traffic to the nation’s ports has decreased to 2003 levels.

“In anticipation of weak demand, many retailers scaled back on inventory levels to prevent unplanned markdowns at the end of the season,” Mullin said. “Once the most popular items are gone, retailers won’t have anywhere to get them, so if there was ever a holiday season to buy early, this is it.”